When it comes to managing major change programmes, it’s a tough truth: around 70% of them are at risk of failure without substantial intervention. This figure isn't just theoretical—it's based on our Programme Success Predictor (PSP) analysis of 26 programmes, which reflects patterns we've observed in over 400 projects. This figure is also backed-up by a study completed by the Boston Consulting Group. So, what’s driving this alarming statistic, and more importantly, how can you tilt the odds in your favour?
The Good News: Some Criteria Are Showing Promise...
Before diving into the challenges, let's start with some positive findings. Our analysis shows that two criteria consistently score well across programmes:
Alignment with Enterprise Strategy/Ambition – Teams are generally working with energy and creativity and are aligned with the company’s overall strategy and goals.
Team Engagement – Across the board, teams are committed to the work, showing initiative and passion in their approach.
However, while these elements are strong, several other criteria are still underperforming, highlighting where improvements need to be made:
Healthy SteerCo Debate – Regular, constructive discussions at the Steering Committee level are lacking.
Sponsor Experience – Many sponsors lack experience in managing similar programmes.
Ambition vs. Capabilities – The ambition of the programme often exceeds the actual capabilities of the organisation.
So, even though these areas show promise, they’re not enough to overcome the serious risks that many programmes face. That’s because most programmes suffer from what we call "programme Serial Killers"—key elements within the programme that, if left unaddressed, could severely hinder its chances of success.
The Four Key Focus Areas in PSP
The PSP dives deep into four critical areas: Leadership, Team, Navigation, and Continual Improvement. We evaluated 26 programmes against 16 essential criteria, and here are the main takeaways:
1. Leadership: Make Your Unknowns, Known
A programme’s chance of success starts with its leadership. If the leadership team and the company itself haven’t set the programme up for success, the chances of failure increase significantly.
Lack of Widespread Support – 50% of the programmes surveyed reported only moderate or weak support from key stakeholders.
Ambition Greater Than Capabilities – 46% indicated that the programme’s ambitions were beyond what the organisation was capable of achieving.
Unresolved Conflicts – 69% of the programmes reported conflicts within the change portfolio that had not been adequately addressed.
Alignment with Business Strategy – While 54% of the programmes were aligned with the business’s strategic goals, a large portion still struggled to tie their initiatives directly to the broader organisational ambitions.
QUESTIONS TO ASK: Have the Programme leadership set realistic, achievable objectives? Is there is buy-in from all stakeholders..
2. Team Efficiency: Stronger Teams, Stronger Programmes
Effective teamwork is critical to a programme’s success. However, our findings suggest that while some teams show signs of healthy collaboration, many programmes suffer from a lack of alignment and trust within the team.
SteerCo Debate – Only 50% of the programmes reported having a “healthy debate” at Steering Committee meetings.
Lack of Sponsor Experience – 50% of sponsors were seen as having little experience in managing similar programmes.
Team Cohesion – 65% reported that suppliers and internal teams were not working cohesively as a unit.
Trust Issues – Another 65% stated that there was a lack of trust between different teams working on the programme.
QUESTIONS TO ASK: How can you strengthen communication and trust within teams? How do you ensure that sponsors have the experience to lead such complex programmes?
3. Navigating Complexity: The Ability to Adapt
Managing complex programmes requires an ability to navigate uncertainty, plan for dependencies, and understand what “success” looks like. Unfortunately, this is an area where many programmes falter.
Plans Not Aligned – Only 25% of the respondents reported confidence that their programme plan would deliver the required quality of solution.
Unmanaged Dependencies – 65% of programmes struggled with identifying and managing dependencies effectively.
Unconvincing Business Cases – 54% of respondents were unsure if the costs and benefits of the programme were worth the effort.
Undefined Success Metrics – 69% indicated that there was no consistent definition of what "success" meant or when the programme would be deemed "done."
QUESTIONS TO ASK: Are your plans are realistic, and clearly define success criteria? Have you deployed rock solid dependency management strategies?
4. Continual Improvement: Learning from the Past
Change doesn’t end when the programme is completed. To adapt and improve, organisations need to have a culture of continuous learning. Our analysis found that while teams are energetic, they often struggle with adapting and using the lessons learned from one change programme to the next.
Energised Creativity – 54% of programmes reported that solutions were driven by energy and creativity.
Lack of Rigour – Only 33% said that the build, test, and implementation phases were done with the necessary level of quality and thoroughness.
Inability to Adapt – 42% said their organisations lacked the capacity, skills, and motivation to adapt to new processes.
Competing Priorities – 62% reported that competing priorities among stakeholders could hinder progress.
QUESTION TO ASK: Are you fostering a culture of continual learning where the team is equipped and motivated to adapt to new processes and challenges?
Why 70% of Programmes Fail: The Serial Killers
So why are 70% of major programmes set up for failure? The combination of leadership issues, team inefficiency, poor navigation of complexity, and lack of continual improvement all contribute to the risk of failure. Lurking within these problem areas are what we call programme Serial Killers—elements within your programme that could derail it if not addressed early.
But here’s the silver lining: If you can identify and address these Serial Killers, you can significantly improve your programme’s chances of success. Through our analysis, we’ve found that by making just three key pivot points in your approach, you can quell your Serial Killers move your programme from the 70% that fail to the 30% that succeed.
Take Action Today
Want to unmask your programme’s potential Serial Killers and increase your chances of success? Start by completing the Programme Success Predictor (PSP) to identify the weaknesses in your current programme and begin making the necessary changes.
The road to success isn’t easy, but with the right approach, it’s well within reach.
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